This isn't just another hurricane season on. Its a remix of the worst ones we've ever survived.

Remember Harvey Burma. Maria, three storms, 26 days, $265 billion in damages. The kind of storms that didn't just break records, they broke people. What if I told you nearly the same dangerous conditions that fueled these monsters are brewing right now in the Gulf and the Atlantic for 2025. 2025 is stacking up like a deja vu of destruction, a chilling remix of years that carved scars into the coastline and rewrote the stories of countless lives.

But why is 2025 shaping up to be this dangerous? It starts with a single domino in the Pacific and its already fallen. Forecasters aren't just raising an eyebrow, they're sounding the alarm before the first storm even gets unn. Why? Because the data paints a picture we've seen before. One force controls weather, storms live or die and it's thousands of miles away. You wanna know what it is?

The Pacific holds a master key to the Atlantic's fate. It's called the Enzo, the El Nino Southern oscillation. El Nino is like a force field, upper level winds that s shred hurricanes before they can grow. But right now we're shifting from a weak LA Nina to neutral Enzo, no force field, no defense. Just like in 2017 when Harvey, Irma and Maria roared to life, I can't believe that this is an actual highway. That was the year the nation's fourth largest city was turned into a giant lake On the side of Key West.

Florida was cut in half by 185 mile an hour winds and the island of Puerto Rico was generationally changed. But the best medical advice that I can give you is get on a plane and abandoned Puerto Rico.

These weren't just storms, they were tragedies. So why do these past years matter? Lets look closer. These are the analog years, five distinct seasons whose atmospheric fingerprints most closely matched what we're observing in 2025. Think of them as the ghosts of hurricanes past whispering warnings about what could be the average from these five. A stark forecast, nearly 15 named storms, eight hurricanes, and around five of those, potentially becoming major catastrophes to understand what's coming.

Look west thousands of miles away in the Pacific. That's where Enzo lives. The El Nino southern oscillation I told you about, when it's in El Nino ode, the Pacific sends upper level winds that tear apart hurricanes before they can grow.

But when the Enzo flips and switches to La Nina or settles in neutral where we are now, those winds die down. And that's exactly how 2017 started. No sheer, no shield, just a hot atlantic, and open runway. The result back then, Harvey, Irma, Maria.

Think a storm can't change everything in days? Harvey proved it can.

Let me take you back to August of 2017. Harvey started as a whisper in the Atlantic, a weak tropical depression entering the gulf. Nothing special but beneath it, an ocean turned hot tub, with no upper level winds to restrain it. We'll see over the next 24 hours how much it blows up.

It exploded in a mere 56 hours. It went from a tropical depression, to a category four monster. But Harvey's true terror wasn't just its wind, it was its agonizingly slow stall. It parked and it poured for days, 60 plus inches of rain turning freeways into rivers and neighborhoods into submerged swamps. Nearly a hundred lives lost, $125 billion in damages. This the second costliest hurricane in US history.

Only behind the unimaginable destruction of Katrina, Harvey's slow agonizing stall taught us a brutal lesson about the power of water.

But what happens when a storm combines that devastating rainfall with a truly unstoppable wind force? Harvey was just the beginning. Could the Atlantic top it?

Well that's exactly what the Atlantic brewed up just days later with Hurricane Irma. You won't believe how quickly this storm went from a tropical disturbance to a category five monster. Before the floodwaters in Texas even receded the Atlantic was birthing its next nightmare.

Just 11 days after Harvey's landfall, a behemoth emerged off the coast of Africa. Irma, fast, furious, unstoppable. From the outset, Irma looked ominous.The Atlantic was ablaze with record breaking sea surface temperatures, no wind shear, just a clear runway of warm moist air.

In a single day, it It from a category two to a terrifying category five. And it held that unimaginable 185 miles per hour Fury for a record shattering 37 hours tearing through the Caribbean like a chainsaw. Then it set its sights on Florida, a state that had been spared a major hurricane landfall for over a decade. Irma arrived with brutal force crushing the keys and delivering a statewide punch. Naples, Fort Myers up to Orlando Millions were plunged into darkness, 134 lives tragically lost, $50 billion in devastation.

As Florida began to pick up the pieces, the atmosphere doubled down . Just two weeks after Harvey, 13 days after Irma, Meet Maria. Maria didn't crawl. It sprinted in a mere 24 hours. It rocketed from a tropical storm to a high end category five. This is what happens when the ocean is boiling and nothing in the atmosphere stands in its way.

After Irma Meet Maria, Maria didn't crawl. It sprinted

Sound familiar? Maria slammed into Dominic with 160 mile an hour winds and then carved a direct path to Puerto Rico making landfall with a catastrophic 175 mile an hour Fury. It obliterated the island's infrastructure plunging over 3 million people into darkness, some for an entire year.

Maria wasn't just a storm, it was a humanitarian crisis, ignited by the very same perfect storm setup we're seeing ominous signs of in 2025.

So what was the invisible link of Harvey's, Irma's, Maria's destructive power? It comes down simply to the water itself.

We're about to dive into the crucial role of sea surface temperatures and what the current readings, tell us about the potential for rapid intensification this year. This is the fuel that turns a regular storm into a category five nightmare. The Atlantic and the Gulf is hot, just like it was in 2017 and that should stop you cold.

It's the same force that's currently lighting the fuse for 2025.

The ocean itself with hurricanes, that's currently lighting the fuse for 2025. The ocean itself with hurricanes, it all starts with the water. Hurricanes are heat engines and warm water is their fuel. Once the ocean hits 80 degrees Fahrenheit, storms can form, but 84 to 86, that's when the storms don't just grow, they explode.

Take 1999, sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic's main development region were significantly above normal, enough to fuel a long and brutal season. Dennis, Floyd, ask anyone in the Carolinas about 1999 and they won't talk about wind speeds, they'll talk about the relentless and devastating floods of Hurricane Floyd. I guess the thing that stands out most to me is the total devastation. A whole swath of a state covered with water. It dumped torrential rain on ground already saturated by Dennis just weeks earlier, triggering historic inundation, entire towns vanishing beneath the water. A storm remembered not for its raw power, but for the sheer volume and persistence of the water. And while so many think a hurricane season as a Gulf Coast or a Florida problem, look back at the analog years of 1999 and 2011 and a different picture emerges, a disturbing picture where the northeast is firmly in the crosshairs of some of these storms. Time and time again, Floyd didn't stop in the Carolinas.

It pushed north flooding towns from Virginia to Vermont. New Jersey experienced some of the worst flooding in state history, then in 2011,Irene did it again, carving a destructive path up the east coast from the Carolinas to Vermont where it dumped nearly a foot of rain in a single day. It struck New York City as a tropical storm, but the relentless rainfall proved deadly.

All fueled by the same volatile combination of a neutral Enzo and a supercharged Atlantic water.

But there is another factor that most people have never heard of or rarely think about.

The final critical piece of this complex puzzle comes from across the Atlantic where the Sahara Desert excels plumes of dust like smoke from a giant furnace. This is the Saharan Air Layer or SAL, and it acts like a natural break on hurricane development.

When the SAL is strong and active, it chokes off potential storms before they can get started.

The dry air, strong winds, and dust particles act like sandpaper disrupting the delicate process of storm formation.

But in 2025, early signs from no model suggest a weaker Sharran Air Layer, less dust, less suppression, and more open pathways across the tropical Atlantic.

This is critical because it opens the door for the long distance threats. Cape Verde hurricanes. Imagine a quiet Start to the season.

Its August, but then a storm forms off the coast of Africa within days. Its a category five and it's heading into the Gulf.

That's a real risk. In 2025, These storms start off Africa and spend days over warm water with no dry air dust or shear to stop them. They have the time and space to grow into monsters like Floyd, Irma, and Maria.

And this year the conditions are wide open. But there's one more wild card in this already loaded deck.

The Mad and Julian oscillation tor MJO, it's not seasonal like Enzo, its not static like sea temperatures. This is an intra seasonal pulse of thunderstorm energy that circles the globe every 30 to 60 days. And when it arrives over the Atlantic, especially during peak season, it can flip the switch from quiet to chaos almost overnight. In 2017, one of the strongest MJO phases coincided with the formation of Harvey, Irma and Maria.

It was like clockwork. And in 2025 there's a real chance we could see an MJO poll roll through at the worst possible time.

Late August into early September, turning what could be a quiet season chaotic. When the MJO's here, it lowers shear boosts moisture and ignites convection. It doesn't just nudge storms into forming, it throws gasoline onto the fire. But here's a critical reminder, even when all of the ingredients appear to be lining up for a dangerous season, the atmosphere can still throw us a curve ball.

Like in 2006, ironically, my first year here in Florida covering storms. Early in the year, we did have tropical storm.

Alberto caused some minor flooding along Florida's Gulf Coast. But after that, basically nothing. On paper, 2006 mirrored the ominous signs we see today. Warm Atlantic temperatures, a neutral Enzo leaning towards La Nina.

It was primed. The forecast called for an above average season, but then something unexpected happened.

A surprise El Nino developed mid seasons strengthening wind shear across the main development region

The very conditions that tear developing storms apart. And the Saharan Air Layer, it arrived in force, blanketing the tropical Atlantic in dry dusty air, effectively suffocating storm after storm. The result, no major hurricane landfalls in the US.

A season that despite its ominous beginnings, ultimately faded into historical obscurity. 2006 taught us that a loaded gun can jam. But this year the chamber does look clear.

A year ago, a multimillion dollar home sat right there. But then in September, hurricane Helene brought in record storm surge.

It damaged the home and it shattered its safety in the minds of its owners. The home since then has been demolished and what will replace it will likely look a lot like what sits next door, now high and dry. But this emphasizes why its so important to pay attention to these forecasts, especially if you live along the coast The respected hurricane researchers at Colorado State University in their early April, forecasts are not mincing words. They anticipate an above average season for 2025. Their prediction 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four of those reaching major hurricane status.

But early forecasts are not crystal balls. The atmosphere itself is a wild card.

And spring predictions can shift as summer unfolds. Still CSU track record and the eerie parallels to years like 2017 make this warning too serious to ignore Noah's outlook in late May goes even slightly higher. The government researchers there believe there's at least a 60% chance of having an above average season with the range of the number of named storms between 13 to 19, six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes, because they like us, have seen years like this before 1999, 2008, 2011and 2017. And in those years, the names that roar to shore, Floyd, Ike, Irene, Irma, Maria did more than just break records, they shattered lives and etched themselves into the history books.

2025 has the makings of another historic season. The only question that remains is what names will we remember next? Please let me know your thoughts in the comments because really it only takes one, one storm, one landfall, one name, forever etched into our memories.